U.S. Inflation Decline Set to Slow
December 11, 2024
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The cryptocurrency market has exploded, witnessing an unprecedented surge as Bitcoin has officially surpassed the astounding $100,000 mark on December 5, with a remarkable daily increase of over 5%, marking a historical peak for the digital currency.
Just a month ago, Bitcoin was trading at $68,000. This meteoric rise can be attributed to various factors, including increased institutional adoption and a general bullish sentiment surrounding cryptocurrenciesOver the year, Bitcoin's value has skyrocketed by nearly 140%, a testament to its growing acceptance as a mainstream financial asset.
Having been in existence for 15 years, Bitcoin's market capitalization is nearing an astonishing $2 trillion, which is comparable to the valuation of two Tesla companies or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, showcasing its significance in the global financial landscape.
In an interesting turn of events, stocks related to cryptocurrencies in the Hong Kong market have also experienced significant gains
For instance, Meitu Incsaw its shares rise by over 9% during tradingThe company announced plans to liquidate its previously acquired cryptocurrencies, revealing that it had sold all of its holdings—including 31,000 Ether and 940 Bitcoins—for a total cash consideration of $180 million, resulting in a profit of approximately $79.63 million.
However, the surging cryptocurrency market has also inflicted heavy losses on those who bet against itAccording to CoinGlass, over 210,000 investors have been liquidated in the past 24 hours alone, with a total liquidation amount of $674 millionThe largest single liquidation occurred in the Bitcoin market, valued at 8.91 million dollars.
Meanwhile, in the A-share market, investors continue to take advantage of index funds to capitalize on the current lows, as stock fund issuance has reached a nearly nine-year high.
In November, the issuance of stock funds surged to 104.633 billion units, marking the second-highest monthly level in history
The CSI A500 index fund dominated this growth, accounting for around 90% of total issuance, with a combined issuance of 96.619 billion units.
The previous historical high was recorded during the bull market in June 2015 when stock funds reached 116.675 billion units.
Newly established public funds in November were predominantly equity funds, with index funds occupying a significant portion of the market.
This year's wave of ETF popularity has attracted ample new capital into the market, with the CSI A500 series index funds setting a record by raising over 200 billion yuan.
New fund applications continue to emerge, indicating that fresh capital is on the horizon
On December 4, the Shanghai Stock Exchange convened a discussion to gather opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the ETF market and encouraging mid- to long-term capital influx.
A representative from the Shanghai Stock Exchange noted that the SSE 180 Index is one of the crucial benchmark indices in China’s capital marketIts optimization and expansion of products will actively implement the new "National Nine Guidelines," speed up investment-side reforms, and support long-term capital inflow into the market.
This year, ETF capital has attracted a significant influx into A-shares
However, data from October showed that active funds have seen a rare cooling compared to passive ETFs.
Mixed funds decreased by approximately 110 billion units in October, continuing a ten-month streak of decline.
Active funds are mostly equity-oriented mixed funds, and market speculation suggests that a considerable number of investors have been redeeming their active equity fundsDespite experiencing an epic surge at the end of September, many investors opted to sell at higher prices in October.
Overall, while there is an influx of new capital in the market, investors seem to be less enthusiastic about active funds compared to previous years, opting instead for ETFs.
In the U.S
stock market, indices like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite continue to rise, setting new records, with tech stocks leading the charge.
The QDII ETF market in China is witnessing premiums, with the S&P Consumer ETF showing a premium rate exceeding 11%, while the S&P 500 ETF and Dow Jones ETF also reflect substantial premiums.
Recently, Federal Reserve officials have been speaking cautiously, maintaining that they believe inflation will eventually drop to the target level of 2%. However, they have refrained from commenting on whether further rate cuts are likely in the upcoming meetings.
Chair Jerome Powell stated that the economy is strong enough for the Fed to approach rate cuts cautiously
He indicated that economic growth has outpaced expectations since the first rate cut in September and that inflation is slightly risingHowever, assessing policies’ influence on the economic outlook is still premature.
As the U.Sstock market hits new highs, prominent figures are beginning to warn about potential risks.
A Rockefeller official cautioned that the American market seems to be brewing a colossal bubbleThe staggering influx of global investment into American assets could be inflating an unprecedented bubble, distorting the fundamentals of other economies.
He noted that nearly 70% of global major indices are now occupied by U.S
stocks, a level of valuation that surpassed even the dot-com bubble in 2000, however, the premium of U.Sstocks compared to other regions hasn’t reached similarly exaggerated levels.
In addition, Joe Davis, the Chief Economist at Vanguard, has warned that the current enthusiasm for AI stocks may exaggerate their short-term potential, thereby increasing the risk of price correctionsHe suggested that companies most closely associated with AI may not be the biggest beneficiaries of whatever transformations AI might bring in the coming years.
The U.S
stock market in recent years has displayed a wild, unrestrained behavior, and interestingly, each time a bearish sentiment emerges, it is quickly countered as seen by the experiences of analysts who have faced repercussions for their warnings.
Notably, Warren Buffett has been continuously selling off U.Sstocks over multiple quartersAlthough Buffett has not explicitly expressed a bearish outlook, his substantial cash reserves raise eyebrows over his market stance, fueling speculation that he is perhaps waiting for a market downturn.
Buffett has famously stated that while one can forecast, one should not gamble against the market
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