U.S. Economic Data: Is a Rate Cut Imminent?

On December 11, 2023, the U.SBureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 2.7% year-on-year and by 0.3% month-on-monthThis data was in line with market expectations, slightly exceeding the previous month's CPI increase of 2.6%.

The release of this data resulted in increased speculation among traders regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in DecemberAccording to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut skyrocketed to 97.9%, a significant increase from 88.9% just a day earlier.

Financial markets reacted quickly to the newsAlthough the stock market had yet to open when the CPI data was released, futures contracts for the three major U.Sindices experienced a short-term surgeOnce the market opened, all three indices posted gains, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continuing to expand their bullish momentum

By the time of reporting, the Dow Jones was up 0.11%, the Nasdaq surged by 1.15%, and the S&P 500 saw an increase of 0.65%.

A deeper examination of the November CPI report reveals that housing costs were the primary driver for the month-to-month increase, accounting for nearly 40% of the overall rise in pricesFood prices also saw a monthly uptick of 0.4%, with grocery prices rising by 0.5% and costs at restaurants climbing by 0.3%.

Energy prices showed a slight increase of 0.2%, ending a period of stagnation observed in OctoberWithin this sector, gasoline prices rose by 0.6% and natural gas by 1.0%, despite electricity prices falling by 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, energy costs dropped by 3.2%, significantly influenced by an 8.1% plunge in gasoline prices and a staggering 19.5% fall in fuel oil prices.

When looking at food-related metrics, there was considerable variability within different categories

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In November, prices for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs experienced a notable increase of 1.7% on a monthly basis, with beef prices rising by 3.1% and egg prices surging by 8.2%. Conversely, prices for grains and baked goods saw their largest monthly decline since 1989, falling by 1.1%.

Another point of interest lies within the core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — as it showed stability amidst the overall fluctuationsMedical services costs saw a 0.3% monthly increase, while used car and truck prices rose by 2.0%, and household products rose by 0.6%. In contrast, communications costs displayed a continuing downward trend, declining by 1.0% for the third consecutive month.

When observing the year-over-year statistics, the total CPI increase settled at 2.7%, slightly up from October's 2.6%. The core CPI increased by 3.3%, marking the lowest level observed in nearly two years

Housing prices saw a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, while healthcare costs rose by 3.1%, and car insurance prices jumped significantly by 12.7%.

Analysts interpret the November CPI data as indicative of a continued moderation in U.Sinflation rates, though persistent pressures exist related to fixed expenses such as housing and healthcareThis situation could potentially constrain consumers' purchasing power moving forwardThe report is expected to have a substantial impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with a crucial interest rate meeting scheduled for later this monthMorgan Stanley analyst Chris Larkin had previously noted that only a significant uptick in CPI would prevent the Fed from cutting rates in December.

Following the CPI data's release, trader sentiment leaned heavily towards market expectations for a December interest rate cutThe CME device indicated that the chances had escalated considerably to 97.9% up from 88.9% just the day prior, reflecting a growing consensus among traders.

In terms of market performance, major U.S

stock indices experienced a positive openingBy the time of this report, the Dow had gained 0.11%, the Nasdaq had increased by 1.15%, and the S&P 500 was up by 0.65%.

Interestingly, precious metals such as gold and silver exhibited little to no significant fluctuations post-releaseThe U.Sdollar index reacted more sharply, plunging to 106.35 and wiping out the day’s earlier gainsAdditionally, U.STreasury yields showed signs of decline, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note reporting at 4.221%. The two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to rate expectations, notably fell to 4.126%.

As for Wall Street's perspective on the released CPI data, widespread reactions suggest that the inflation figures provided a solid confirmation of market expectations, creating a sense of certaintyNeil Birrell, Chief Investment Officer at Premier Miton Investors, commented, "This report will bolster the Fed's confidence

Investors will also feel reassured as the data did not bring any surprises — whether good or bad — making short-term decision-making more certain."

Add to this Bespoke Investment Group's humorous observation regarding the reaction to the CPI reportThey likened the market's response to that of youth flocking to a Taylor Swift concert, saying that previously, around late 2022 and early 2023, CPI data was akin to a major event drawing significant attention from economists and traders alikeBack then, the average market volatility upon CPI data release hovered close to 2%. In contrast, the recent CPI announcement elicited a dramatically muted market response, suggesting that the market is gradually adapting to the trend of declining inflation.

Wells Fargo's Chief Economist Jay Bryson referred to the report as "unremarkable," saying, "There isn't much worth noting." He anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely opt for a 25 basis point cut at its forthcoming meeting.